Yankee Group: What’s Next for Mobile in Europe?

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What’s Next for Mobile in Europe?

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Executive Summary

The European mobile industry has reached a fascinating crossroad in its relatively short history. One path leads to sustained price erosion, service commoditization, declining average revenue per user (ARPU) and, ultimately, mobile network operators (MNOs) becoming bit-pipes. The other path leads to rapid growth in customer adoption of smartphones, an explosion in mobile broadband (MBB) use, accelerated demand for mobile apps and MNOs retaining a critical role in the mobile services value chain. Which path will the industry follow?

In truth, it’s not an either/or proposition. The future of mobile services, and MNO roles in particular, will be a combination of the two scenarios outlined above. Some services like mobile telephony will experience a revenue decline, although usage levels and customer dependency will remain strong. Some services like messaging will flat-line as increased usage is negated by price reductions. Other services like MBB and mobile apps will experience rapid growth in penetration, usage and revenue.

In this report, we present our forecasts for the Western European mobile communications market. The emphasis here is on presenting our numbers and explaining the rationale behind the data. For a detailed discussion on the MNO strategies required to achieve growth, we refer throughout the text to several other recent Yankee Group reports.

Keywords

MNO, Europe, grow, revenue, ARPU, bit-pipe

Pages
Publish Date & Author(s)

by Declan Lonergan, Vice President
11 pages
February 2010